It's been a month since the D.C. Circuit heard oral arguments on the Clean Power Plan, and the nation is in wait-and-see mode. But our report, Untapped Potential: The Carbon Reductions Left Out of EPA's Clean Power Plan, released today by the Center for Progressive Reform, shows that, even if the Plan is upheld, continued climate initiatives to control existing power plant emissions are warranted and workable.
Our analysis demonstrates that EPA identified numerous available reduction opportunities that were not incorporated into the Clean Power Plan's requirements. By 2030, these opportunities could have reduced emissions from existing sources by almost 400 million tons of carbon per year in comparison with the Clean Power Plan's requirements.
Whether EPA should or shouldn't have incorporated them into the Clean Power Plan is not the point. What is the point: given the pressing risks of climate change and extensive data on achievable reduction opportunities, policymakers should not just "wait-and-see" what happens to the Clean Power Plan. Continued administrative and legislative efforts to reduce emissions, including emissions from existing power plants, are needed regardless of the Clean Power Plan's fate.
Our report focuses on a little-discussed methodological choice that had significant ramifications for the Clean Power Plan's stringency: EPA's decision to establish relatively weak uniform national performance rates for coal and natural gas plants that left out significant reduction opportunities in the western states.
In developing the Plan, EPA initially assessed regional opportunities, focusing on the nation's regional grids: the Eastern, Western, and Texas Interconnections. Based on the opportunities it identified, EPA developed achievable regionally tailored performance rates, rates that diverged dramatically given much greater reduction opportunities in the west. EPA determined that, in the western states and Texas, coal-fired power plants could reduce their effective emissions rates significantly by taking advantage of extensive opportunities to shift generation to much less polluting natural gas plants and by developing available renewable energy opportunities.
As a result, after taking into account these reduction opportunities, the effective emissions performance rates for coal-fired power plants was 360 pounds of carbon dioxide per megawatt hour of electricity generated (lbs CO2/MWh) in the Western Interconnection and just 237 lbs CO2/MWh in the Texas Interconnection. By comparison, fewer reduction opportunities in the Eastern Interconnection resulted in much higher allowable emissions: an effective emissions rate of 1,305 lbs CO2/MWh in the Eastern Interconnection.
Instead of applying the regionally tailored performance rates, EPA selected the least stringent regional rates – from the Eastern Interconnection – and applied them nationwide. In other words, even though EPA had determined that coal-fired power plants could sharply reduce their effective emissions – down to 360 lbs CO2/MWh – in the western states, these states and their utilities are allowed, under the Clean Power Plan, to emit at much higher levels. Most importantly, the Clean Power Plan does not incorporate or incentivize many of the achievable reductions, through shifts to natural gas or investments in renewables, that EPA had identified.
The gap between what EPA required and what EPA determined could be done has important implications for the U.S. electric power sector and U.S. climate policy: